New Delhi, June 6 (PTI): COVID-19 has been slowly transforming into a milder disease. However, an occasional rise in cases is anticipated since the virus is now endemic and continually evolving, according to scientists who have assured the public that there is no need to worry.
Experts have attributed the rise in COVID-19 cases across many parts of the country to diminishing immunity, coupled with factors such as extreme temperatures which confine people indoors with air conditioning. The emphasis is on maintaining vigilance, especially among vulnerable sections of the population.
"Every passing year witnesses COVID-19 manifesting as a milder infection," explained global health expert Dr. Chandrakant Lahariya. He added that COVID-19 has become comparable to other respiratory illnesses and poses a lesser threat than the flu.
According to Anurag Agarwal, Dean of Biosciences and Health Research at the Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University, Haryana, the new subvariants show low virulence but high infectivity. Those with previous infections or vaccinations are generally safer, with highly vulnerable individuals being the exception.
The World Health Organization (WHO) announced an end to the COVID-19 'public health emergency' status two years ago, in May 2023. Today, the disease is considered 'seasonal', 'endemic', and here to stay, though somewhat regionally restricted.
The country's active COVID-19 cases went past 5,300 on June 6, with about 500 cases added in the last 24 hours. Most of these have recovered, with 55 deaths noted in this wave starting January 2023, primarily involving people with existing health issues, according to the Union Health Ministry.
"Individuals with underlying health problems and those over 65 should adhere to standard precautions," advised Lahariya.
Kerala leads with over 1,600 cases, followed by Gujarat, West Bengal, Delhi, and Maharashtra, according to ministry data.
This surge in India is part of a broader wave impacting Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Hong Kong. Wastewater surveillance by the National Chemical Laboratory in Pune has detected SARS-CoV-2 in samples from 10 sewage treatment plants. This pattern is similar to pre-surge trends, say scientists from NCL.
Recent genome sequencing has revealed links to subvariants of Omicron like LF.7, XFG, JN.1, and NB.1.8.1. According to Rajiv Behl, Director-General of the Indian Council of Medical Research, these cases are not critical and pose no significant threat.
LF.7 and NB.1.8.1 have been classified as 'variants under monitoring' (VUM) by WHO, which serves as a prompt for public health agencies to prioritize surveillance. JN.1 has been circulating in India since November 2023.
Immunologist Satyajit Rath explained that the rising case numbers are due to certain subvariants having a higher ability to bind to human cells, despite existing antibodies.
"The focus should remain on their virulence rather than infectivity," Rath, formerly with New Delhi’s National Institute of Immunology, stated. As the virus continues to mutate, oscillations in infection rates are expected.
"Concerns should only arise with the announcement of a new 'variant of concern'. VUMs primarily matter to public health authorities," Agarwal explained.
Lahariya stressed the importance of relying on authenticated information rather than forwarding unverified messages. Rath advised keeping an eye on the potency of new strains.
Experts emphasized the need for governmental vigilance as well.
"Authorities need to track case trends and promptly disseminate data. Understanding infections and their clinical outcomes is vital for assessing variant characteristics," Lahariya suggested.
Rath pointed out systemic deficiencies, particularly regarding public health preparedness and healthcare availability.
"How thoroughly are our public health systems monitoring viral strains, both for SARS-CoV-2 and other diseases?" he questioned. He also raised concerns about the development and distribution of next-generation COVID-19 vaccines.
Rath underscored the necessity of providing free and accessible masks to support the poor and vulnerable. The current gaps in protective measures reflect a systemic issue, leaving disadvantaged communities to fend for themselves.
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