India is gearing up for a promising monsoon season in 2024, with meteorological experts forecasting a 'normal' monsoon across the country. According to Skymet, a leading private weather forecasting agency, the upcoming monsoon is expected to be 'normal' to the tune of 102% of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6mm for the four-month period between June and September 2024, with a margin of error of +/- 5%.
Regions in the south, west, and northwest of the country are anticipated to experience "sufficiently good rains" this year, while Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, forming the core monsoon rainfed zone, are predicted to receive adequate rainfall.
However, states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal may face the risk of deficit rainfall during the peak monsoon months of July and August. The northeast region is also expected to receive 'less than normal' rains during the first half of the monsoon season.
Jatin Singh, the Managing Director of Skymet, highlighted the transition from El Nino to La Nina, indicating a stronger monsoon circulation during La Nina years. While the initial phase of the monsoon season might face challenges due to the remnants of El Nino, Singh expressed optimism about a favourable second half.
The forecast from Skymet precedes the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) southwest monsoon forecast expected to be issued by the end of April. The southwest monsoon plays a crucial role in India's agriculture sector, contributing close to 70% of the country's yearly monsoon and around 14% to the GDP.
In contrast to the below-average cumulative rainfall of 820mm recorded in 2023, attributed in part to the strengthening of El Nino, hopes are high for a more fruitful monsoon season in 2024, crucial for sustaining the agricultural backbone of the nation.